On Consequences
The New York Times has this important article. If you don't read the whole thing, here are four passages I think are worth special attention:
Hoshyar Zebari, the foreign minister, sounded a similar warning at a Baghdad news conference on Monday. “The dangers vary from civil war to dividing the country or maybe to regional wars,” he said, referring to an American withdrawal. “In our estimation the danger is huge. Until the Iraqi forces and institutions complete their readiness, there is a responsibility on the U.S. and other countries to stand by the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people to help build up their capabilities.”
...
On the potential for worsening violence after an American withdrawal from Iraq, he said: “You have to look at what the consequences would be, and you look at those who say we could have bases elsewhere in the country. Well yes, we could, but we would have the prospect of American forces looking on while civilians by the thousands were slaughtered. Not a pretty prospect.”
In setting out what he called “the kind of things you have to think about” ahead of an American troop withdrawal, the ambassador cited several possibilities. He said these included a resurgence by the insurgent group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which he said had been “pretty hard-pressed of late” by the additional 30,000 troops Mr. Bush ordered deployed here this year; the risk that Iraq’s 350,000-strong security forces would “completely collapse” under sectarian pressures, disintegrating into militias; and the specter of interference in the chaos by Iran, neighboring Sunni Arab states and Turkey.
...
Mr. Zebari, Iraq’s foreign minister, said Monday that neighboring Turkey had massed 140,000 troops near his country’s northern border and urged it to resolve differences with dialogue, not through force. . . . A spokesman for the Turkish military said it had no comment on the reported troop movement.
As Congress gears up for debate on this issue, I think we should all consider what would happen next if America abandoned Iraq. (for an excellent film eerily similar to this, see "Three Kings")
Hoshyar Zebari, the foreign minister, sounded a similar warning at a Baghdad news conference on Monday. “The dangers vary from civil war to dividing the country or maybe to regional wars,” he said, referring to an American withdrawal. “In our estimation the danger is huge. Until the Iraqi forces and institutions complete their readiness, there is a responsibility on the U.S. and other countries to stand by the Iraqi government and the Iraqi people to help build up their capabilities.”
...
On the potential for worsening violence after an American withdrawal from Iraq, he said: “You have to look at what the consequences would be, and you look at those who say we could have bases elsewhere in the country. Well yes, we could, but we would have the prospect of American forces looking on while civilians by the thousands were slaughtered. Not a pretty prospect.”
In setting out what he called “the kind of things you have to think about” ahead of an American troop withdrawal, the ambassador cited several possibilities. He said these included a resurgence by the insurgent group Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, which he said had been “pretty hard-pressed of late” by the additional 30,000 troops Mr. Bush ordered deployed here this year; the risk that Iraq’s 350,000-strong security forces would “completely collapse” under sectarian pressures, disintegrating into militias; and the specter of interference in the chaos by Iran, neighboring Sunni Arab states and Turkey.
...
Mr. Zebari, Iraq’s foreign minister, said Monday that neighboring Turkey had massed 140,000 troops near his country’s northern border and urged it to resolve differences with dialogue, not through force. . . . A spokesman for the Turkish military said it had no comment on the reported troop movement.
As Congress gears up for debate on this issue, I think we should all consider what would happen next if America abandoned Iraq. (for an excellent film eerily similar to this, see "Three Kings")
posted by Tom Fletcher at 7:45 PM
4 Comments:
I agree with all of Minister Zebari's comments. What is not being addressed by those favoring continued American military involvement is whether Iraq, as a unified country, can be saved.
If American military might can keep Iraq unified, I'm all for it. However, I think that can't happen. Iraq's three factions--Sunni, Shia, and Kurds--could only be controlled by a brutal evil tyrant like Saddam. In other words, Iraq created Saddam, not the other way around.
Like so much of eastern Europe, eventually Iraq will splinter into different countries. And I've read nothing about how this will be a bad thing, aside from the obvious casualties of an open civil war. But, I think it better to have an open civil war with an eventual end, then continued civil strife under an ineffective sham government with no end in sight.
Zebari is obviously quite biased because his position depends on the protection of the US military.
I still don't see how things could get much worse. The latest serious study of the toll of the war, which is about a year old and was published in The Lancet, shows that over 650,000 Iraqis have died by violence during the US invasion and occupation. It doesn't get much worse that 2% of your population dying by violence in just a few years (given that Iraq has 10% of the population of the US, it would be like 6.5 million Americans being killed).
Here's two ways that partion/break-up makes the situation worse: First, Turkey invades a substantial portion of northern Kurdistan, ostensibly to control PKK rebels who occasionally make forays into southeastern Turkey - thereby screwing up the one part of the country that actually functions right now. Second, a Shiite majority state in southern Iraq might well turn into an Iranian client state (see: Lebanon and Syria over the last 30 years.) Either eventuality poses a substantial level of suck for American interests and foreign policy.
Having said that, I'm not sure that the current situation is any better - or even sustainable.
If the US leaves, I dont see how we (or they, more accurately) avoid some sort of civil war and eventual partition. So while this is probably the most reasonably crappy outcome we can hope for, given that we're stuck with Bush for another 18 months, it may still leave us with major new problems, no matter what Joe Biden says.
And to think this started as a prelude to a parade through Baghdad where we were going to be hailed as liberators. Yeesh.
Hey Tom...
I'm writing this from the Internet Classroom lab. :-) Kass found your weblog, and has a request -- she and Trev teach this class now.
Can you come and give a lecture on copyright? That would be so excellent. I second the motion!
That's all the legalese I know. ::chuckle::
Call me.
Lloyd
(Kass apologizes for appropriating a non-personal weblog for this business, but Tom doesn't check his e-mail often enough. :P )
Post a Comment
<< Home