The Edley Over-Under
It's a new day in America.
In light of the inspirational and historic milestone of Obama's election, it's time for Democrats all over the country to ask: "What's in it for me?" Or perhaps more charitably: "How can I get involved?"
Which brings us to DE, who's been rushing to start construction before election day. DE is close to Obama and a member of the transition team. DE has assured faculty that he has no "Potomac Fever," and I almost believe him. But my guess is that he'd prefer a role with a little more authority and stability than he has here as Dean. Yes, I'm talking about Article III.
The next President will nominate many federal judges. I would guess that progressive appellate judges have been delaying retirement for a Democratic president. As a result, Obama will appoint several appellate court justices in 2009. Following recent precedent (i.e., Roberts and Alito), if a Supreme Court position opens up in 2010 onwards, it will probably be filled by one of those early nominees.
In other words: if Edley is a potential Supreme Court nominee, then he is likely to be nominated as an appellate judge soon. And a position on the 9th Circuit wouldn't require him to move to Washington or leave the Boalt community--his two justifications for NOT joining the Obama Administration.
So here it is: the Official Edley Over-Under. I predict that Edley will be appointed to the 9th Circuit (based in San Francisco) by mid-2010. What do you think?
In light of the inspirational and historic milestone of Obama's election, it's time for Democrats all over the country to ask: "What's in it for me?" Or perhaps more charitably: "How can I get involved?"
Which brings us to DE, who's been rushing to start construction before election day. DE is close to Obama and a member of the transition team. DE has assured faculty that he has no "Potomac Fever," and I almost believe him. But my guess is that he'd prefer a role with a little more authority and stability than he has here as Dean. Yes, I'm talking about Article III.
The next President will nominate many federal judges. I would guess that progressive appellate judges have been delaying retirement for a Democratic president. As a result, Obama will appoint several appellate court justices in 2009. Following recent precedent (i.e., Roberts and Alito), if a Supreme Court position opens up in 2010 onwards, it will probably be filled by one of those early nominees.
In other words: if Edley is a potential Supreme Court nominee, then he is likely to be nominated as an appellate judge soon. And a position on the 9th Circuit wouldn't require him to move to Washington or leave the Boalt community--his two justifications for NOT joining the Obama Administration.
So here it is: the Official Edley Over-Under. I predict that Edley will be appointed to the 9th Circuit (based in San Francisco) by mid-2010. What do you think?
(I wrote this post this morning , and I'll be damned if I'm going to be pre-empted by Patrick.)
Labels: DE, Moving Out
posted by Carbolic at 4:05 PM
28 Comments:
Yes, 9th Circuit early in the first Obama administration and then during the second Obama administration a bump up to the big leagues. Good for the country. Good for Boalt in the long run.
To be honest, I think it might be a bad thing for DE to be appointed to the Ninth Circuit, since he has only been in California for a short period of time. It seems that judges appointed in various locations have ties to that area, rather than only a transient presence. It might be better for him to be appointed to a district position, though he may not have the litigation experience to warrant such a position.
That said, it would be terrific for Boalt in the long run for DE to make it onto the 9th or, better yet (though unlikely) SCOTUS.
Edley is only 57, and given Bush's (Sr. and Jr.) strategy of appointing SCOTUS Justices that were under 60 (in order to lengthen their tenure on the court, and extend the influence of stone-age regression to the maximum extent possible), Edley is a prime candidate to replace Stevens. I anticipate that Stevens will retire at 7:30am Jan. 21.
I'll have more to say about this later tonight or tomorrow, but he's not going to be appointed to any judgeship. He'll be in the White House. You can take that to the bank.
He swore up and down at both the townhall and in an email to the student body that he had no wishes to go (back) to Washington.
I agree that he also isn't likely to be appointed to the SC, but there are a LOT of potential retirements in the coming years. In addition to Stevens being 88, Breyer, Souter, Ginsburg, Scalia and Kennedy are all between the ages of 69 and 75. Further, Roberts has has two unexplained seizures, which by definition is epilepsy - basically an x-factor in these considerations. This makes 1 certain retirement and between 2 and 4 likely retirements, more coming if Obama wins a second term.
Toney, can you imagine any scenario where DE WOULD admit White House aspirations?
Oh, of course not, especially given his role in the Berkeley administration. But he didn't have to go to the extent he did in reassuring us that he won't go.
DE isn't leaving until construction is done. I'll organize a sit-in if I have to.
And he's not in the running for SCOTUS - women and Hispanics, friends.
I, on the other hand, think Bill Clinton would make a great second President-turned-SCOTUS-judge. And I think we should pack the Court, no? Eleven in '11!
I should also say I'm surprised by the surprise of DE being named to the transition team. He told us he was working on the transition team a couple weeks ago, when he and his wife did their "How to get a job in the new administration" talk.
If you want to know who will be on the Ninth, look to Feinstein and Boxer, not Obama. I doubt they'd choose Edley for the Ninth Circuit, unless he has some ties to them I;ve never heard about.
Far more likely: follow the pattern of the Clinton appointments. Thus, look to various Clinton-era district judges, prominent attorney donors or campaign organizers. Academics rarely get chosen to be judges. I mean, examples anyone can think of? Posner, Easterbrook, Livingston (CA2), Noonan ... all Republican appointments. The only Clinton one I can think of was Guido Calabresi. Willie Fletcher doesn't count as a professor -he was a friend of Bill and campaign organizer. Did Bill appoint any other professors?
How about our own Boaltie, Willie Fletcher. Clinton and he were Rhodes Scholars together, and Fletcher was a Boalt professor at the time of his appointment.
You all are looking at this through the wrong end of the telescope. If I were a 1L, maybe even a 2L, I'd be thinking about lining up a commencement speaker for 2011 (or 2010, as the case may be).
any chance that DE could get offered a DC Cir slot rather than 9th?
i don't want DE to leave :(
Bill Clinton on SCOTUS? I didn't know the justices pulled much booty.
10:32, research one of my heroes, Justice William O. Douglas.
This article is a good place to start.
Speculation about the 9C in fun! Based on a little time in politics (and a little time on the 9C), I'd venture this as a best-guess shortlist for new nominations: Chris Edley (maybe, for reasons discussed), Claudia Wilken, Jeff Bleich, Kathleen Sullivan, Kamala Harris, Susan Illston, Nora Manella, Mariano-Florentino Cuéllar, Erwin Chemerinsky, Carlos Moreno.
10:53--that looks like a great start! Here are my thoughts:
Jeff Bleich is probably more interested in a political appointment than a judicial one.
Chemerinsky will probably keep building his law school. The other deans (and ex-Dean Sullivan) would probably take a chance at the appellate to SCOTUS opportunity.
Okay, team. We can't put every law school dean in the nation on SCOTUS. It's just not big enough.
Related to bigotry and hatred, did anyone actually watch Fox news to see Ralph Nadar call Obama an "Uncle Tom"? I pass by his local campaign office every day when I ride the bus to class. The clip is worth a watch.
Most surprising to liberals (if Nadar using a racially offensive term isn't surprising enough), was Fox News' Shepard Smith calling him out.
Nadar: People called you out in 2000 for ruining Gore's chances. People called you out in 2004 for letting your big head make your decisions. This year Fox News calls you out and you talk your way into being wiped off the face of the political landscape.
--
For the youngin's like me who wouldn't be used to the vernacular of our nation's senior citizens, see here for a definition.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/05/BUF613UUT2.DTL&type=politics
I should have included the key quote from that chron article along with the link:
"Edley, 55, may be reluctant, though. He said by e-mail Wednesday he had no comment on speculation about an appointment, but he told The Chronicle editorial board recently that he had no desire to return to Washington, where he served Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton in various capacities. Still, he is a part of the transition team for Obama and told the editorial board he has not ruled out the possibility of serving in an Obama administration."
Great find, Sara. Since Armen is holding out on us with his promised insight, here are my thoughts.
In Washington, DE is probably being considered for a White House advisor position. He doesn't have enough experience as a practicing lawyer to be White House Counsel or a head prosecutor at DOJ. He's not in line for a cabinet position, either.
Most White House advisors only stay in that position for a few years. (The workload is very high). Then where would DE go? He couldn't come back to being Dean at Boalt; they would have appointed someone in the meantime. (I guess he could come back as a mere law professor.) Another prominent deanship might not be available by then.
No, I think DE is going to hold out for the high court. And the first step to be considered for that spot would be to accept an appellate position.
anyone have thoughts on Goodwin Lui? I hear he told his class he was on the transition team and would be missing some classes...that would be a big loss as well...
Goodwin Liu has a hand in this?
Oh no.
Fundamental federal right to education, here we come.
There would be a lot more oxygen around Boalt if Goodwin Liu and his big head left for Washington.
really, 12:00pm? i had GL for con law last spring. he was, hands down, one of the nicest and smartest professors I've had at boalt.
As a former classmate of Barack Obama's in Chris Edley's class at Harvard, I'd have to say yes, you're right. Many appellate judges teach at law schools. For example, my professional responsibility professor at Boalt was 9th Circuit Judge John Noonan. My administrative law professor at Harvard was then 1st Circuit Judge Stephen Breyer. I did the Boalt Hall/Kennedy School combined degree program, 2 years at Berkeley and 2 years at Harvard, graduating Cal Law in 1990 and Harvard K-School in 1991. This great combined degree program done by my fellow ELQer Jeff Bleich and many others still exists. Then Harvard Law President Barack Obama was quite impressive in then Prof. Edley's small seminar. Whenever Barack spoke, you could hear a pin drop before and after because everybody quieted down to hear what President Obama had to say. Dean Edley would be a tremendous, historic judge. Edley has eminent qualifications and experience from the academy and the Clinton Administration. Edley's appointment as judge, like Obama's election, would be further proof that the US is a meritocracy, not a hereditocracy. Well Obama and Edley were quite impressive back in the day, and so much more so now, it's breathtaking. While Boalt may be sorry to see Dean Edley go onto the bench (or the shelf as Breyer used to say), Edley could still stay and teach. Why not? Last I heard Justice Breyer still teaches law in DC.
Joel Freid
Cal Law JD 1990/JFK Fellow MPA/2 Harvard 1991
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