Breaking: Souter to Retire
See breaking coverage (among other places) here.
Early speculation had been covered here.
"Souter is expected to remain on the bench until a successor has been chosen and confirmed, which may or may not be accomplished before the court reconvenes in October."
Discussion topics:
- Arlen's impact on decision and future confirmation hearings
- Obama's parameters for a pick
- How that'd change makeup of Court
- Any strategy in anticipating other seat vacancies as well?
Additional topics added by Armen:
- His many talents
- And people who will miss him
Early speculation had been covered here.
"Souter is expected to remain on the bench until a successor has been chosen and confirmed, which may or may not be accomplished before the court reconvenes in October."
Discussion topics:
- Arlen's impact on decision and future confirmation hearings
- Obama's parameters for a pick
- How that'd change makeup of Court
- Any strategy in anticipating other seat vacancies as well?
Additional topics added by Armen:
- His many talents
- And people who will miss him
Labels: SCOTUS
posted by tj at 7:31 PM
20 Comments:
As to other vacancies, I don't think Souter would have elected to retire without first making sure that Stevens or Ginsburg were not about to do the same.
Expect no other vacancies until far in the future. Like 2010.
predictions: diane wood (7th Cir.); sonia sotomayor (2d Cir.)
anyone else?
Elena Kagan?
Was this that big of a surprise given lack of clerks hired by Souter for OT09 and his well known distaste for life inside the Beltway?
It's not a big surprise. But if all three of Souter, Stevens, and Ginsburg step down during Obama's first term, that'll be pretty crazy. The last time a president appointed three new justices during a single presidential term was forty years ago.
If he wanted to leave anytime soon, it was good he went now. Imagine that Stevens and Ginsburg both retired. Then Souter wants to retire. Close to the next Presidential election.
TJ, I think your post must include this obligatory video reference to Souter's umm initiation.
Second, "Not Souter! Oh no."
It'll be great if whoever replaces him is expected to be liberal but gradually gets more and more conservative.
Does that ever happen? I've never known anyone to change from progressive to conservative. Maybe with money, but definitely not social issues.
Frankfurter might be one example, though there's a good argument that the Court around him shifted and he stayed fairly consistent.
Are there any specific issues on which we'd predict that Wood, Sotomayor, or Kagan would vote differently than Souter would've?
I don't think he'd nominate Kagen yet - she hasn't been SG long enough.
9:18 - yea, it's pretty funny to look back and see who voted against him at the time - includes many best buds today. See here.
As long as we're on the topic of flip-flopping on positions, I think this story from 2004 regarding the views of then Senate Majority Leader Bill Frist is amusing: "Frist called the filibuster of judicial nominations radical, dangerous and 'nothing less than a formula for tyranny by the minority. ... It must be overcome.'"
9:29, I'm not familiar with the records of Wood or Sotomayor (and Kagan doesn't have one to speak of) but off the top of my head the following come to mind:
-- Apprendi/Booker/Sentencing Guidelines. Will they be Breyer/Ginsburg or Stevens/Souter? This isn't that big of a deal because CJ Roberts is on the majority side whereas Rehnquist was not.
-- Business cases. Souter authored Bell Atlantic v. Twombly. But he dissented in Leegin.
Moving back to frivolity. The clear winner and loser are Alito and Breyer, respectively. Poor Stephen spent the better part of a decade opening and closing doors for the others, while Alito gets off with a measly 3.5 years.
Finally, for the truly, and I mean truly, nerdy among you, the new SCOTUS seating chart will look like this, from the Justices' right to left:
Alito -- Ginsburg -- Kennedy -- Stevens -- The Chief -- Scalia -- Thomas -- Breyer -- Newbie.
I believe Justice White swung right.
didn't frankfurter move right?
aren't Kathleen Sullivan and Kim McLane Wardlaw still in the running?
I usually swing right, particularly when flaccid.
obama should totally appoint judge marilyn milian...she's young, female, non-white...all around perfect. it might mean the people's court would go down hill (because who could replace her) but i think it's a fair trade-off.
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